Exit Polls Hint Big BJP-Shiv Sena Victory in Mumbai
Two exit polls suggest a strong BJP–Sena mandate, leaving the Thackeray brothers trailing by a wide and telling margin.
Mumbai appears set for a major political shift as exit polls predict a decisive victory for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance in the fiercely contested Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. Media reports citing multiple polling agencies suggest the ruling Mahayuti combine has surged far ahead, leaving the much-publicised “united” front of the Thackeray brothers struggling to keep pace.
At least two exit polls have projected a clear and comfortable mandate for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance, indicating little resistance from the Shiv Sena (UBT)–Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) partnership led by Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray. The Congress-led alliance, meanwhile, is expected to face yet another disappointing outcome, with projections placing it far behind the main contenders.
According to exit poll trends, the alliance led by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has struck a chord with Mumbai’s diverse electorate. Pollsters suggest the Mahayuti has emerged as the preferred choice among migrant voters from North and South India, a significant demographic in the city. In addition, the alliance is expected to secure a substantial share of Maratha votes, strengthening its position across multiple wards.
In contrast, the Thackeray cousins appear to have struggled to consolidate even their traditional vote banks. Exit polls indicate that the Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance has largely relied on Marathi and Muslim voters, but even this support base seems divided. Analysts point out that a lack of confidence among voters may have limited the alliance’s ability to convert sentiment into decisive electoral gains.
Two prominent polling agencies, Axis My India and JVC, have predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP–Shiv Sena combine. According to JVC’s projections, the alliance could win around 138 wards, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) is likely to secure about 59. The Congress-led alliance, as per these estimates, may manage only around 23 wards, reflecting its shrinking influence in the city’s civic politics.
Axis My India’s forecast is equally emphatic. It predicts the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance could win between 131 and 151 wards, comfortably crossing the majority mark. The Shiv Sena (UBT)-led alliance is projected to win between 58 and 68 seats, far short of posing a serious challenge for control of the civic body.
However, not all pollsters see a landslide. The Sakal Poll has suggested a closer contest, describing the BMC battle as a tight race between the BJP–Shiv Sena and the Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance. Even in this scenario, though, the Mahayuti is expected to hold a narrow edge, with projections of around 119 wards compared to about 75 for the Thackeray-led front. The Congress tally, according to this survey, is likely to remain below 20 seats.
The elections carried added emotional and political weight as Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray joined hands after nearly two decades of separation. Shiv Sena (UBT) contested around 160 wards, while the MNS fielded candidates in about 53.
The BMC, India’s richest civic body, went to the polls on Thursday, January 15, alongside elections for 28 other municipal corporations across Maharashtra. Voting for Mumbai’s 227 civic wards took place from 7.30 am to 5.30 pm, with vote counting scheduled for Friday, January 16.
While exit polls offer an early indication, the final verdict now rests with the electorate’s count. For now, Mumbai waits as political fortunes hang in the balance, with the city’s civic future poised on the edge of a potentially historic outcome.