War may end, but healing takes longer
Trump says war may end soon, but oil recovery could lag weeks, with each delay stretching global normalization further
Trump Teases Quick Exit from Iran War, But Oil Pain Lingers for Months
Picture this: It’s early April 1, 2026, and Donald Trump, ever the showman, drops a bombshell to reporters hounding him about skyrocketing fuel prices. “The war in Iran could end within maybe two weeks,” he teases, linking to his bold claim (NDTV). The US President signals he might pull out without any grand deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the world to stew in an energy crisis his administration kicked off over a month ago. It’s like hitting the eject button mid-flight—dramatic, but does it really solve the turbulence below?
Trump’s frustration boils over as he snaps at allies who ghosted his pleas for military muscle: “Get your own oil!” His offhand remark—”We’re not going to have anything to do with it (the Hormuz)”—hints at washing his hands of the mess. Assuming he’s right and the shooting stops in two weeks, don’t pop the champagne yet. Experts warn it’ll take another six to eight weeks before oil production ramps back up and tanker traffic through Hormuz flows like it used to. Why the delay? As a sharp early-war report from Thomson Reuters put it, there’s a built-in lag of two to four weeks. Think of it as the “pain from today’s anchored tankers” still creeping through the system, like a traffic jam you don’t feel until you’re stuck in it.
Macquarie Group’s strategist Vikas Dwivedi breaks it down plainly: “It would probably take a couple of weeks before things even start to normalise.” You’ve got stored oil piled up at record levels that needs loading onto ships, then production kicking into gear—which eats up a few more weeks. And that’s before tackling the real headache: repairing energy infrastructure hammered by Iranian, US, or Israeli airstrikes. The damage tally? Still a foggy mystery.
“Some of it will be very quick,” Dwivedi notes. “Damage by drones, like we’ve seen in Ukraine, can be patched in days to a couple of weeks.” But if it’s a massive process unit? “That could be a bespoke project—several months, even a year,” he told Yahoo Finance. It’s the difference between a quick Band-Aid and rebuilding a house from the foundation up.
Then there’s the post-war nightmare: mine cleanup. Reuters revealed in early March that Iran sprinkled Maham-3 and Maham-7 mines across Hormuz’s narrow 33km choke point—just two shipping lanes, each 3.2 to 3.7km wide, with a slim buffer. Clearing those is no picnic; it’s dangerous, slow work, like defusing bombs in a bottleneck hallway. Add debris from blasted vessels, and timelines stretch further.
Don’t forget shipping costs, the silent killer here. Charter rates for VLCCs (those massive crude carriers refineries rely on) exploded past US$400,000 a day amid the fighting. One India-bound tanker shelled out a jaw-dropping US$770,000 daily in early March. “This is insanely high,” says Erik Grundt, senior analyst at Norway’s Rystad Energy. “Last year, we called US$100,000+ a ‘strong market’—this is apocalypse territory.”
These rates won’t crash overnight. It’ll take two to four weeks—maybe six—for them to settle, as insurers recalibrate, VLCCs prove safe passage, and loading ops resume. Factor in detours around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, and it’s a logistical slog. Charter fees are just the tip; tack on fuel, port charges, canal tolls, and more—another US$50,000 daily, per Grundt.
All this assumes a “best case scenario,” where peace holds and fixes go smoothly. In reality, geopolitics loves a curveball. For folks in Hyderabad or anywhere fuel-dependent, that means higher pump prices, jittery markets, and a reminder: wars end, but their echoes—like empty tankers and minefields—linger like a bad hangover. Trump’s tease might thrill headlines, but the real story is the grind to normal.