Setbacks mount for Mamata Banerjee before Bengal results
Tensions rise; TMC alleges tampering, EC assures secure strongrooms
With the calendar ticking toward May 4—the day West Bengal will finally know who rules its Assembly—Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC) are running not just against the BJP, but against a tightening web of political nerves, legal doubts, and public apprehension. Just days before counting begins, the mood in Kolkata and across the state feels less like anticipation and more like the quiet before a storm. The TMC is staring down a rare convergence of setbacks: unfriendly exit polls, a bruising legal battle over nominations, and a tense drama around EVM security that played out
Exit polls that feel like a political earthquake
The first major jolt came on Wednesday, when a cluster of exit polls lit up screens across India with one common theme: a BJP surge in Bengal. The numbers, raw and unemotional, suggested a possible end to the TMC’s 15‑year rule. Major pollster Matrize put the BJP in the 146–161 seat range, with the TMC trailing in 125–140—a tight contest, but one where the BJP appeared to hold the upper hand. P‑Marq pushed the needle further, forecasting 150–175 seats for the BJP and 118–138 for the TMC. Poll Diary was even more confident in the BJP’s momentum, projecting 142–171 seats for the party and a narrower 99–127 band for the TMC.
Only one major agency, People’s Pulse, painted a different picture. Its projection had the TMC firmly back in power, with 177–187 seats, and the BJP limited to 95–110. For Banerjee and her party, that outlier was a lifeline—a statistical reminder that projections are not verdicts, and that rural strongholds, local networks, and last‑minute ground shifts can still change the script. But for political observers and the BJP camp, the dominant trend was obvious: after 15 years of TMC dominance, the narrative was shifting from “will the BJP win?” to “how big will the BJP win be?”
A legal battle that drains the air from the campaign
Alongside the exit polls, TMC leaders are coping with a lingering legal headache. The Supreme Court’s decision to defer the final hearing on the party’s nomination dispute left the TMC feeling kicked while already down. The case, which had already claimed the party some of its strongest candidates, continued to hang in the air like a low cloud over the campaign. Every day without a clear ruling meant another day of uncertainty, of whispers in tea‑stalls and WhatsApp groups about “who’s really in charge?” and “who’s still in the race?”
For a party that prides itself on grassroots control and tight internal discipline, the nomination chaos struck at a sensitive nerve. It also gave the BJP a powerful talking point: that the TMC’s own confusion and legal woes were paving the way for a “new wave” in Bengal politics.
EVM fears and the late‑night drama
Then came the late‑night drama around EVMs and ballot boxes—the kind of incident that can either harden faith in the process or deepen the suspicion that someone, somewhere, might be “adjusting” the result. The TMC’s protests over alleged tampering of EVMs and the opening of ballot boxes without authorised representatives turned Bhabanipur into a political epicentre just as the nation was preparing to tally the votes. Banerjee’s nearly four‑hour vigil inside the strongroom, followed by her warning that “people’s votes must be protected,” was a performance that mixed genuine concern with unmistakable political messaging.
But the BJP’s response—Suvendu Adhikari’s video of his election agent “keeping strict surveillance” on the chief minister—was equally theatrical. It reframed the night as a controlled environment in which nothing “outside the rules” could happen, and suggested that the TMC’s theatrics were more about optics than evidence.
What this convergence means for Bengal
Put together—exit polls hinting at a BJP wave, a legal battle over nominations, and a loud chorus of doubts around EVM security—the coming days feel like a culmination of all the tension that has built up over the last 15 years. For the TMC, this is not just an election; it feels like a referendum on a political era. For the BJP, it is a chance to turn a long‑running campaign in Bengal into a governing reality.
When counting begins on May 4, the numbers will be cold and precise. But the emotions behind them—doubt, anger, hope, and fear—have already been laid bare in live feeds, exit‑poll graphs, and late‑night strongroom standoffs. Whatever the result, Bengal will have to reckon with the fact that the pre‑counting days have already changed the way many people see elections, institutions, and the very idea of a “fair fight.”