Europe eyes Africa, racing China for influence and trust
Can Europe realistically counter China’s deepening global influence?
The Global South has always been a contested space for the world’s major powers. While wars and military interventions dominate headlines, the real struggle today is quieter but no less intense. It is being fought with loans, infrastructure projects, trade deals and diplomatic leverage. At the centre of this new economic contest lies Africa, a continent with enormous needs and equally enormous strategic value.
Africa’s demand for investment is staggering. By 2025, its infrastructure deficit alone is estimated at €146 billion, while the global shortfall stands at over €34 trillion. Roads, ports, power grids, digital networks and industries are desperately needed to support fast-growing populations and fragile economies. For global powers, this gap represents both a challenge and an opportunity: whoever helps build the future gains influence over it.
China moved first. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013, Beijing has poured billions into African infrastructure, rapidly becoming a dominant economic partner. The approach has been fast, flexible and highly visible. Ports, railways and power plants have risen where Western-funded projects often stalled in bureaucracy. This success, however, has come at a cost. Many recipient countries now complain about opaque loan terms, environmental damage and projects that generate debt without long-term stability. Still, China’s footprint is undeniable.
The European Union, by contrast, relied for decades on traditional development aid. In 2020 alone, it spent nearly €70 billion supporting the Global South. Yet this generosity did not translate into loyalty or lasting influence. Aid was fragmented, poorly coordinated and rarely tied to long-term economic strategies. Worse, European taxpayers increasingly questioned why vast sums were being spent abroad while domestic pressures mounted. Politically and economically, the EU was losing ground.
Trade data underlines this decline. Europe’s share of North African exports fell sharply between 1999 and 2019, as did its import share. Politically, Western influence weakened too, visible in UN votes where many African states chose neutrality rather than alignment with Europe or the US. Meanwhile, Russia expanded its presence through private military contractors, offering brute-force security support to unstable regimes. Compared to this, China’s economic diplomacy looked far more attractive.
This erosion of influence has forced the EU to rethink its strategy. The result was the Global Gateway initiative, unveiled in 2021. Its core idea is simple but ambitious: move from charity-based aid to investment-driven partnerships. Instead of grants that disappear, the EU wants projects that benefit both sides economically while advancing strategic goals such as supply-chain security, green infrastructure and digital connectivity.
Under Global Gateway, the EU aims to mobilise €300–400 billion by 2027, roughly half of it for Africa. The focus is on sustainable transport, renewable energy, digital networks and access to critical raw materials. With around 30 percent of the world’s key mineral deposits located in Africa, these investments also help Europe reduce its heavy dependence on China, especially in rare earth processing.
Some projects are already underway. The Lobito Corridor, linking mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Angola to the Atlantic coast, is a flagship example. Digital initiatives like the MEDUSA submarine cable aim to connect Africa more closely with Europe by 2026. These are tangible signs that Global Gateway is more than rhetoric.
Still, the challenges are serious. The initiative is expensive, and Europe risks being outspent by China, which invested over €100 billion in Belt and Road projects in 2024 alone. Internal EU fragmentation remains another threat. With 27 member states and hundreds of “flagship” projects, focus can easily be lost. Critics also question whether Europe can realistically promote democracy and human rights while partnering with governments accused of corruption or repression.
Yet there are reasons for cautious optimism. Financing concerns have eased, with private investors showing confidence in the initiative. By late 2025, the EU had already reached its funding target and raised it to €400 billion, signalling belief in Global Gateway’s long-term potential.
Ultimately, this is about credibility. Europe’s frustration at being sidelined on the global stage will only deepen unless it proves capable of acting strategically and decisively. Global Gateway is a chance to do exactly that — to engage Africa as a partner, not a charity case, and to show that European power can still shape the future. The question is no longer whether the EU understands the stakes, but whether it has the political will to follow through.