looms as Somalia faces its greatest test
2026: Somalia’s Greatest Test
The year 2026 is shaping up to be a defining moment for Somalia, a convergence of political, security, and geopolitical crises that could test the country’s fragile federal system like never before. Elections, insurgency, internal fragmentation, and foreign interference are all accelerating at once, leaving Mogadishu with little margin for error.
At the center of the storm is a highly contentious election cycle. Somalia recently crossed a historic threshold when residents of Mogadishu voted directly in local elections for the first time since 1969. For decades, political power has been distributed through clan-based formulas or imposed by authoritarian rule. December’s vote was meant to be a controlled experiment—introducing one-person, one-vote democracy in the capital before rolling it out nationwide in 2026.
On paper, the exercise was a success. Turnout was respectable, more than 1,600 candidates contested seats, and multiple political parties participated. Yet the vote unfolded under extraordinary security measures. Over 10,000 troops flooded the capital, the airport was shut down, and major roads were sealed off to prevent attacks by al-Shabaab. The election had already been postponed three times in 2025, highlighting just how fragile the process remains.
Critics argue the vote revealed as much about Somalia’s vulnerabilities as its progress. Opposition figures accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration of staging a tightly controlled exercise designed to entrench incumbents rather than empower voters. Analysts warn that while al-Shabaab poses a very real threat—demonstrated by repeated attacks in Mogadishu, including a direct strike on the president’s convoy in 2025—the security narrative can also be exploited to justify political manipulation.
Beyond the capital, the challenge is even starker. Al-Shabaab controls or influences vast swathes of rural Somalia and several population centers, making a free and fair nationwide vote extraordinarily difficult. With Mohamud’s term ending in April 2026 and parliament’s mandate expiring a month later, time is running out. Mogadishu faces an impossible choice: exclude voters living under insurgent control or proceed with elections vulnerable to militant interference.
These constraints create opportunities for power consolidation. While Somalia agreed that parliamentary elections would be direct, the presidency will still be decided by lawmakers—a system that favors incumbents with influence over institutions and regional leaders. Critics fear emergency powers, election delays, or selective enforcement could be used to extend mandates under the guise of national security. Somalia’s entrenched political and clan elites, long beneficiaries of corruption and patronage, have little incentive to resist such moves.
Even democratic reform itself carries risks. Experts warn that pushing universal suffrage without broad political consensus, institutional readiness, or minimum security guarantees could deepen fragmentation rather than unity—centralizing power while weakening legitimacy across the regions.
If internal pressures were not enough, Somalia now faces a major external shock. In late December, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state. Though unlikely to spark immediate international recognition, the move carries heavy symbolic and geopolitical weight. Somaliland, long more stable than the rest of Somalia, has sought independence for decades but faced stiff resistance from the African Union and most global powers.
Israel’s decision has alarmed Mogadishu, which sees it as a threat to Somalia’s territorial integrity and a potential gateway for foreign military activity in the Horn of Africa. President Mohamud condemned the move as a “naked invasion,” warning that Somaliland could be used as a base for regional operations.
Behind the scenes, the United Arab Emirates looms large. The UAE already operates a major port and military facilities in Somaliland and views the territory as a strategic asset along vital trade routes. For Abu Dhabi—and increasingly Jerusalem—Somaliland offers intelligence advantages, especially for monitoring Yemen and Red Sea dynamics. While an outright military confrontation remains unlikely, the symbolism alone weakens Mogadishu’s claim to sovereignty at a critical political moment.
As 2026 approaches, Somalia faces overlapping do-or-die moments: an election under fire, an insurgency tightening its grip, regional states drifting further from the center, and foreign powers reshaping realities on the ground. Whether Somalia emerges more unified or further fractured will depend on decisions made in the coming months—decisions that could define the nation’s trajectory for years to come.