PM Modi’s Ukraine visit aims to upgrade India’s warships capabilities.
As Prime Minister Modi and President Zelenskyy engage in discussions on bilateral and multilateral cooperation, there is a strong likelihood that they will explore avenues to deepen industrial and defense ties between India and Ukraine. Both leaders recognize the strategic importance of enhancing their countries’ collaboration in these sectors. The talks are expected to focus on leveraging Ukraine’s expertise in defense technology and industrial capabilities to support India’s growing defense needs. Strengthening these ties could lead to joint ventures, technology transfers, and increased military cooperation, ultimately boosting both nations’ defense capabilities and contributing to regional stability.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv on 23 August marks a historic first for an Indian prime minister, coinciding with Ukraine’s National Flag Day. This visit holds significant importance, coming against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has not only reshaped global geopolitics but also posed considerable challenges to India’s defense capabilities. For India, this visit is more than a diplomatic engagement; it is an opportunity to explore strategic partnerships with Ukraine, especially in defense manufacturing, which could be mutually beneficial for both nations.
India’s defense sector, particularly its naval and air force capabilities, stands to gain from such collaborations. One of India’s immediate needs is marine engines for its warships and upgrades for its large air transport fleet. Ukraine, despite being severely impacted by the war with Russia, remains a key player in defense manufacturing. Ukrainian defense companies, like the Antonov Serial Production Plant in Kyiv and the Zorya-Mashproekt complex in Mykolaiv, have been crucial suppliers for India. However, these factories have been targeted and bombed by Russian forces, leading to significant disruptions in their operations.
The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) large fleet of An-32 military transports has been particularly affected. These aircraft were scheduled for an upgrade under a 2009 contract, with 40 aircraft to be upgraded in Ukraine and another 65 in India under Ukrainian supervision. However, the supply chain has been disrupted due to Russia’s refusal to supply spare parts, leaving the last five of the 40 aircraft stuck in Kyiv. The local upgrade in India has also stalled due to the departure of Ukrainian engineers and a shortage of necessary components.
Similarly, the Zorya-Mashproekt complex in Mykolaiv, which is vital for the production of turbines used by navies worldwide, including India’s, has been heavily targeted by Russian forces. The complex was struck in March 2022, severely crippling its operational capabilities. Mykolaiv’s strategic location has made it a frequent target for shelling and infrastructure damage, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the company. For India, which relies on these turbines for its warships, the situation presents a significant obstacle to maintaining its naval capabilities.
One potential area of collaboration is the establishment of joint ventures in India, where Ukrainian technicians could work alongside Indian counterparts to set up manufacturing units. Bharat Forge’s recent acquisition of a 51 percent stake in Zorya’s India arm could serve as a foundation for such partnerships, allowing India to develop its defense manufacturing capabilities while providing Ukraine with much-needed financial support.
The ongoing war has placed Ukraine in a precarious position, with its defense industry struggling to maintain operations. Cooperation with India could offer Ukraine a lifeline, providing both financial support and a stable market for its defense products. For India, deepening ties with Ukraine could help overcome the challenges posed by disrupted supply chains and enhance its defense capabilities at a critical time.
The broader geopolitical context also adds weight to Modi’s visit. Russia is currently grappling with Ukraine’s advances in Kursk, raising the stakes for Modi’s trip. The Indian government has maintained a consistent stance on the conflict, emphasizing the need for dialogue and diplomacy. This nuanced approach is likely to guide discussions in Kyiv, where Modi is expected to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
While Zelenskyy may address India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, his willingness to welcome Modi to Kyiv and announce several agreements indicates a readiness to focus on broader, strategic issues. Modi’s visit on Ukraine’s National Flag Day underscores the significance of this meeting, highlighting the potential for strengthened bilateral relations.
However, the volatile situation in Ukraine remains a concern. There is speculation that Ukraine might stage a significant action to coincide with Modi’s visit, similar to the missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv during Modi’s visit to Moscow. India may have sought assurances from Ukraine that no provocative actions would take place during the visit, ensuring that efforts for a strategic partnership are not overshadowed by military escalations.
By leveraging this visit to negotiate strategic partnerships in defense manufacturing and engage in a candid dialogue on the ongoing conflict, India can position itself as a key player in shaping the future of the region. Strengthening defense ties with Ukraine could provide India with the technological advancements and capabilities needed to bolster its military strength. At the same time, it would offer Ukraine the financial and strategic support necessary to sustain its defense industry in the face of ongoing challenges.
In conclusion, Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine on this historic occasion represents more than just a diplomatic milestone. It is an opportunity to forge a strategic partnership that could have lasting implications for both nations. By deepening industrial and defense ties, India and Ukraine can navigate the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict and emerge stronger on the global stage.