Sheikh Hasina’s China ties did not cause her downfall.
Bangladesh’s increasing proximity to China and its expanding bilateral military cooperation have raised concerns in New Delhi and Washington. The deepening ties between Dhaka and Beijing, particularly in the military realm, have led to apprehensions about regional security and influence. India and the United States have both viewed these developments with caution, fearing that stronger Chinese involvement in Bangladesh could impact their strategic interests in South Asia. This shift in alliances has been closely monitored by both countries as they navigate their own geopolitical strategies in the region.
Sheikh Hasina’s Downfall: The Role of China and Western Discontent
Introduction
In recent developments, the political landscape of Bangladesh has witnessed significant shifts, leading to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Her downfall has been attributed to various factors, with some narratives focusing on her alignment with China and strained relations with Western countries. While the Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia has framed the situation as a reaction to India’s support for Hasina, the reality is more complex and rooted in geopolitical dynamics and internal challenges.
Bangladesh’s Relations with China
Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh significantly deepened its ties with China, leading to a notable shift in its foreign policy. This strategic pivot involved extensive bilateral military cooperation and the acquisition of Chinese military equipment. From artillery guns to main battle tanks, missiles, submarines, and fighter jets, the Bangladesh Army’s arsenal was heavily influenced by Chinese imports. One of the most striking developments was the establishment of a Chinese-built naval base in Pekua, Cox’s Bazar, named BNS Sheikh Hasina. This base and the purchase of two Ming-class submarines from Beijing were viewed with alarm by both India and the United States.
China’s growing influence in Bangladesh was not limited to military cooperation. The civilian and military bureaucracy in Bangladesh appeared to be increasingly compromised by Beijing, mirroring similar patterns observed in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, and Myanmar. This influence extended to the operational and strategic decisions affecting the country’s security and international relations.
Western Concerns and Diplomatic Tensions
The Western countries, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom, expressed considerable discomfort with Sheikh Hasina’s alignment with China. The American reaction was particularly severe, focusing on her strategic decisions rather than her commitment to multi-party democracy. The presence of a Chinese naval base in Bangladesh and the acquisition of Chinese submarines were seen as significant threats, undermining regional security and the Indo-Pacific strategy advocated by the Quad alliance.
The strained relationship between Sheikh Hasina and the West was further complicated by her perceived antagonism towards Western interests and her inclination towards Beijing. The Indian national security establishment was aware of this friction and attempted to mediate between Hasina and Western powers. Despite these efforts, the mutual dislike between Hasina and the U.S. persisted, driven by her geopolitical choices rather than domestic political issues.
Economic Crisis and Political Unrest
Bangladesh’s economic challenges compounded the political instability facing Sheikh Hasina’s government. The country is grappling with a severe economic crisis, with mounting debt and the risk of loan default. This financial turmoil is exacerbated by the country’s strained relations with its neighbors and the broader international community. The economic difficulties have created fertile ground for political unrest, with Islamist forces like Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam gaining traction.
The economic crisis has been further complicated by the strike of the Bangladesh police, creating a security vacuum. Army Chief General Waker-us-Zaman is expected to address the extremist threat and the radicalization of youth, a task made more difficult by the current political and economic instability.
Impact on Regional Security
Sheikh Hasina’s pro-China tilt had significant implications for regional security. Bangladesh’s alignment with China presented a challenge to India’s strategic interests, particularly in the sensitive Siliguri Corridor. The use of Indian credit lines by Bangladesh for military purchases from China and Turkey, rather than from India, further strained relations between Dhaka and New Delhi. India’s offer to build frigates for Bangladesh was overlooked in favor of Chinese and Turkish military equipment.
The broader implications of Bangladesh’s military cooperation with China also impact regional security dynamics. China’s influence in Bangladesh, along with its bases in countries like Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Iran, poses a challenge to the Quad’s Indo-Pacific strategy. This geopolitical competition underscores the complex interplay between regional alliances and national security interests.
The Way Forward
With Sheikh Hasina ousted, Bangladesh faces a critical juncture. The country’s new leadership, including interim advisor Muhammad Yunus and Army Chief General Waker-us-Zaman, will have to navigate the economic crisis and political unrest. Despite the removal of Hasina, Bangladesh’s reliance on Indian support remains crucial, given its economic vulnerabilities and security challenges.
The celebration of Hasina’s exit by her adversaries may overlook the pressing need for stability and economic recovery in Bangladesh. The rise of pan-Islamic forces amid economic hardship could further destabilize the country. The transactional nature of Chinese support contrasts with India’s more enduring partnership, making the role of new leadership pivotal in shaping Bangladesh’s future.
Conclusion
Sheikh Hasina’s downfall is a multifaceted issue, involving her alignment with China, strained relations with Western countries, and the domestic economic crisis. The geopolitical and security implications of her policies, coupled with internal challenges, have led to significant political upheaval in Bangladesh. As the country moves forward, the new leadership will face the daunting task of addressing both economic and political instability while navigating complex regional dynamics. The resolution of these issues will determine the future trajectory of Bangladesh and its relations with its neighbors and global powers.