Strict curbs today could make Delhi’s air cleaner.
The study reveals that despite numerous policy measures between 2019 and 2025, Delhi’s air pollution stubbornly remained around 100 µg/m³, showing how urgent stronger action has become for citizens.
A new study has offered both a warning and a glimmer of hope for Delhi’s beleaguered air quality, suggesting that if the city implements curbs comparable to those seen during the Covid-19 lockdown, it could achieve the national ambient air quality standard by 2040. The findings come from a detailed analysis that examined 36 years of particulate matter (PM2.5) data, highlighting the persistent challenges and opportunities for India’s capital to reclaim cleaner air.
Urban Emissions, an environmental advocacy group. Their research analyzed PM2.5 concentrations in Delhi from 1989 to 2025, providing a long-term perspective on the city’s air pollution trajectory. The analysis concludes that achieving the national ambient standard of 40 µg/m³ set by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) is feasible, but it would require extraordinary efforts equivalent to the dramatic reductions observed during lockdown periods.
Specifically, the study emphasizes that a combination of strategies could dramatically improve air quality. These include a 55% reduction in emissions from all anthropogenic sources, a 75% drop in winter heating emissions, and a 100% elimination of stubble burning emissions from agricultural fields. If successfully implemented, such measures would allow Delhi to meet national standards and drastically reduce the health risks associated with prolonged exposure to toxic air.
The research also underscores a sobering reality: despite multiple policy announcements between 2019 and 2025, Delhi’s annual average PM2.5 levels have largely hovered around 100 µg/m³, roughly 2.5 times the national standard and 20 times the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline of 5 µg/m³. These numbers highlight how far the city still needs to go, and the urgent need for action, particularly during winter months when pollution spikes sharply due to heating and stagnant air conditions.
The authors place the blame squarely on implementation delays rather than a lack of scientific understanding or policy frameworks. According to the study, if every action listed in the National Clean Air Programme’s 2019 clean air plan had been implemented as intended, Delhi could have already been on track to meet the national annual ambient standard by 2040—or even sooner. The findings suggest that the gap is not technical or scientific but operational, reflecting the challenges of translating policy into practice.
The study also quantifies the financial and health costs of inaction or delayed implementation. If Delhi only achieves 60 µg/m³ by 2040, rather than the ideal target of 40 µg/m³, the city could experience 11.6% more exposure cases, meaning additional instances where people are vulnerable to air pollution-related health impacts. If PM2.5 concentrations remain at 100 µg/m³, the situation worsens dramatically, resulting in 35.3% more mortality cases per 100 cases than would be expected if the 40 µg/m³ target were achieved. These statistics make the consequences of delay starkly tangible: every year of inaction contributes to preventable suffering, illness, and death.
Interestingly, the study uses the Covid-19 lockdown as a practical benchmark, demonstrating what is technically possible when human activity is sharply curtailed. During the lockdown, the city saw dramatic reductions in industrial emissions, vehicular traffic, and construction dust. However, the study notes that heating and stubble burning were largely unaffected during the lockdown period. Heating primarily affects winter months, while stubble burning occurs seasonally after crop harvests. Therefore, even during periods of extreme reduction in other sectors, these two sources remain critical targets for long-term air quality improvements.
The researchers’ recommendations are clear: to realistically achieve cleaner air, Delhi must focus on both immediate and long-term interventions. These include stricter emissions controls for vehicles and industries, better urban planning to reduce dust and construction-related pollution, and collaboration with neighboring states to prevent stubble burning. Additionally, public awareness campaigns are essential to ensure citizens understand their role in reducing pollution, from minimizing private vehicle use to supporting cleaner energy initiatives.
The study ultimately presents a vision that is both cautionary and hopeful. While Delhi continues to struggle with some of the worst air pollution levels in the world, the analysis demonstrates that reaching the national standard is not only scientifically possible but also within reach if decisive actions are taken now. The Covid-19 lockdown provides a rare proof of concept: when emissions are sharply reduced, air quality improves remarkably, offering a roadmap for policymakers and citizens alike.
As Delhi faces the coming decades, this study serves as a reminder that the city’s fight against pollution is urgent and actionable. With concerted effort, innovative policies, and community participation, Delhi could transform from one of the most polluted capitals in the world into a cleaner, healthier, and more sustainable city by 2040. The question remains whether action will match the science, or whether inaction will continue to exact a human and financial toll on the city’s residents.