US sanctions slash Russia’s oil exports to India
Experts say it’s too soon to judge the impact, but Indian refiners remain cautious as US sanctions near.
Russia’s oil exports to India have seen a sudden and sharp decline following fresh US sanctions targeting two of Moscow’s biggest energy firms — Rosneft and Lukoil. The sanctions, announced last month, are part of Washington’s renewed effort to squeeze Russia’s oil revenues amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to provisional tanker-tracking data from global analytics firm Kpler, the impact on India’s oil imports from Russia has already begun to show, even before the sanctions officially take effect later this month.
In the week ending October 27, Russia’s crude oil exports to India averaged around 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd) — a steep fall from 1.95 million bpd recorded just two weeks earlier. The numbers suggest a sudden slowdown in shipments, reflecting the growing hesitation among Indian refiners to engage with Russian suppliers facing new restrictions.
Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer and one of the sanctioned firms, saw its shipments to India plunge to 0.81 million bpd in the same week — down from 1.41 million bpd a week earlier. Lukoil, another major player, recorded no shipments at all to India during that period, compared to 0.24 million bpd previously. Together, these two companies account for a significant share of Russian crude heading to India, which had become Moscow’s second-largest buyer after China since the war began.
Industry experts, however, caution that it may be too soon to assess the full impact of the sanctions. They expect a clearer picture to emerge over the next month or two as refiners and traders adapt to the new restrictions. “It’s still early days,” said one energy analyst based in Singapore. “The market is waiting to see how strictly these sanctions are enforced and whether alternative payment or shipping arrangements can be made.”
The sanctions, effective from November 21, mark the first major move against Russian oil companies since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The US administration said the measures were designed to curb Russia’s war funding and push for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
For India, which has relied heavily on discounted Russian crude since early 2022 to manage its energy costs, the sanctions pose a new challenge. Refiners now face increased scrutiny over payment mechanisms, shipping insurance, and compliance risks. While India is unlikely to halt Russian imports entirely, the new sanctions could force it to diversify sourcing once again — potentially pushing up domestic fuel costs in the coming months.