Wayanad landslides tied to 10% increased rainfall from climate change.
Researchers from India, Sweden, the US, and the UK have warned that climate change is likely to make extreme weather events, such as landslides in Wayanad, more common as global temperatures continue to rise. The study highlights that the region experienced 10% heavier rainfall, directly contributing to the increased frequency and intensity of landslides. As the climate warms, the risks associated with such natural disasters are expected to escalate, posing greater threats to vulnerable areas. The researchers emphasize the urgent need for adaptive measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on these regions.
A recent study has linked the deadly landslides in Kerala’s ecologically sensitive Wayanad district to a significant increase in rainfall intensity, exacerbated by climate change. According to this rapid attribution study conducted by an international team of scientists, rainfall in Wayanad was made 10% heavier due to human-caused climate change, triggering the devastating landslides in this fragile region. The study underscores the growing threat that climate change poses to areas already vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly as the planet continues to warm.
The research, conducted by experts from India, Sweden, the US, and the UK, warns that such catastrophic events are likely to become more frequent as global temperatures rise. The scientists used advanced climate models with high resolution to analyze rainfall patterns in the relatively small and complex study area of Wayanad. These models demonstrated a clear link between climate change and the increased intensity of rainfall, showing that the region experienced a 10% increase in rainfall due to the warming climate. Furthermore, the models predict a further 4% increase in rainfall intensity if the global average temperature rises by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
Despite the clear findings, the scientists caution that there is a “high level of uncertainty” in the model results, primarily due to the small and mountainous nature of the study area, which presents complex rainfall-climate dynamics. However, they emphasize that the observed increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a broader scientific consensus on the impact of climate change on extreme weather patterns, both globally and within India. This understanding is based on the well-established principle that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to more intense and frequent downpours.
Scientists note that the atmosphere’s capacity to retain moisture increases by approximately 7% for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. With the Earth’s surface temperature already having increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the escalating concentration of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, the world is witnessing a rise in extreme weather events. This includes not just landslides, but also droughts, heatwaves, and floods, which are becoming more severe and frequent worldwide.
The Wayanad landslides are particularly concerning given the district’s ecological sensitivity and the ongoing environmental changes in the region. The relationship between land cover, land use changes, and landslide risk in Wayanad is complex and not fully understood. However, the study highlights that human activities, such as quarrying for building materials and significant deforestation, have likely increased the vulnerability of the region’s slopes to landslides during heavy rainfall. Specifically, Wayanad has seen a 62% reduction in forest cover, which may have compromised the stability of the slopes, making them more prone to landslides when subjected to intense rainfall.
Other researchers have supported these findings, linking the Wayanad landslides to a combination of factors, including deforestation, mining activities in fragile terrains, and prolonged periods of rain followed by heavy precipitation. The warming of the Arabian Sea has also been identified as a critical factor in increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in Kerala. S. Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), pointed out that the warming of the southeast Arabian Sea is causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable, allowing the formation of deep cloud systems that result in extremely heavy rainfall over short periods. This atmospheric instability significantly increases the risk of landslides in the region.
The heightened vulnerability of Wayanad and other districts in Kerala to landslides is well documented. According to the Landslide Atlas released by the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) of ISRO last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are located in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked 13th. This ranking highlights the district’s susceptibility to such natural disasters, exacerbated by environmental degradation and changing weather patterns.
A study published by Springer in 2021 further confirmed that all landslide hotspots in Kerala are concentrated in the Western Ghats region, particularly in the districts of Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode, and Malappuram. The study revealed that approximately 59% of all landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas, indicating that changes in land use and vegetation cover play a significant role in the region’s landslide risk.
Moreover, a 2022 study on the depletion of forest cover in Wayanad showed a dramatic reduction in forested areas over the past several decades. The study revealed that 62% of Wayanad’s forests disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover increased by around 1,800% during the same period. This shift from natural forest to plantation agriculture has likely contributed to the destabilization of the region’s terrain, making it more susceptible to landslides during extreme weather events.
The findings of these studies underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the increasing risks of natural disasters in ecologically sensitive areas like Wayanad. As the global climate continues to warm, regions like Wayanad are likely to experience more frequent and severe landslides, posing significant challenges for local communities, environmental conservation efforts, and disaster management.
In conclusion, the recent landslides in Wayanad serve as a stark reminder of the far-reaching impacts of climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions. The increase in rainfall intensity, driven by a warming climate, is a key factor behind these deadly events. As global temperatures continue to rise, it is crucial for policymakers, scientists, and local communities to work together to implement strategies that can mitigate the risks and enhance the resilience of regions like Wayanad to future climate-related disasters.