Energy Experts Warn Oil Supply Recovery May Take Months
Saudi Arabia, UAE May Resume Oil Output Fastest
London/Washington – ‘Not Overnight’: Energy Experts Warn of Months-Long Recovery Despite Iran Peace Deal
The dramatic announcement Sunday of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices tumbling in after-hours trading and sparked cautious celebration across global markets. But energy experts are urging restraint: high oil and gasoline prices, along with chronic supply problems, will not be solved overnight. Despite the political breakthrough, it will likely take months — and in some cases more than a year — before energy companies can resume operations at levels sufficient to meet world demand, according to multiple analysts interviewed Monday.
The core problem is not just the strait’s closure, but the sheer logistical paralysis that has accumulated over more than three months of war. Since late February 2026, when hostilities first blocked the waterway, hundreds of oil tankers have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to safely transit the narrow chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and gasoline supplies typically flowed. Even with the blockade now lifted by President Trump, the process of untangling this maritime gridlock will be painstakingly slow.
Evans outlined a two-step choreography: First, the stranded ships must exit the strait. Only then can new, empty tankers enter to be loaded. With memories of missile attacks on tankers still fresh, shipping insurers are expected to impose steep premiums or delay coverage altogether until a sustained period of calm is verified.
Oil tankers themselves move slowly — typically at 12 to 15 knots. Evans explained that even under ideal conditions, it takes months to travel from the strait to distant refineries in Europe, Asia, or North America, process the crude into gasoline or diesel, and then deliver the finished products to final consumers.
But the delays run deeper than shipping. Some Middle Eastern producers, facing full storage tanks with no way to export, were forced to shut in production — a deliberate pause in extracting oil from the ground. Restarting those fields is not like flipping a switch. Wells may have experienced pressure drops, equipment may have been mothballed, and technical crews who fled the conflict zone must be brought back, often from abroad. Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said the speed of recovery will vary dramatically by country.
“Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, where there are alternate pipelines or routes besides the Strait of Hormuz to deliver oil, may be among the quickest to resume production,” Gelder said. Both nations maintained limited export capacity via the Petroline (East-West pipeline) and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) respectively, meaning their shut-ins were less severe.
Investment in the energy system — capital for drilling, maintenance, and infrastructure — ground to a complete halt after the strait’s closure. Gelder noted that such investments typically take years to yield results, and the restart of this capital will not happen instantly. Companies need to see sustained, predictable prices and security guarantees before committing billions of dollars.
That point was echoed by Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
Analysts also pointed to a secondary bottleneck: refineries. Even when crude arrives, many refineries have been running at reduced rates or have deferred maintenance during the war. And in countries like Lebanon and Syria, where war damage to fuel infrastructure is severe, recovery will be measured in years, not months.
For now, consumers should not expect immediate relief at the pump. “A peace deal is the first step, not the last,” said Sternoff. “The physics of oil and gas don’t care about diplomatic handshakes.” As one tanker captain in the Gulf put it: “We’ve heard ‘start your engines.’ But right now, no one is turning the key.”